News of the Day ... in Perspective9/20/2004
Estimated cost of Kerry plan upped to $1.5 trillion
Using Congressional Budget Office techniques, CBO veteran Joe Antos and a team of actuaries found that the cost of Senator Kerry’s health proposal would be $1.5 trillion over ten years, more than double the $653 billion estimate by the Kerry campaign.
The Kerry campaign bases its estimates on an analysis by Kenneth Thorpe of Emory University. Two reasons are cited for the $867 billion discrepancy: 1. The Thorpe estimate tracks nine years of costs rather than the full budget window. 2. Cost increases were believed to be underestimated, and savings overestimated.
The Antos study estimates that the Bush plan would increase federal outlays by $130 billion over ten years and result in 6.7 million newly insured persons. Because the Kerry plan directs many subsidies to those who are already insured, the number of newly insured would be only 27.3 million.
Joseph Antos, et al. Analyzing the Kerry and Bush Health Proposals: Estimates of Cost and Impact, American Enterprise Institute, Sept. 13, 2004: www.aei.org
More Radical than Hillarycare? AAPS News, October 2004