U.S. suffers from fiscal cancer, states U.S. Comptroller David Walker

Ignored by most politicians, David Walker, who heads the Government Accountability Office (GAO), is taking his message on tour. His presentation on the unsustainability of the U.S. economy can be viewed on YouTube.

The biggest contributor to the coming fiscal meltdown is the Medicare prescription drug benefit.

Boston University professor Laurence Kotlikoff asks the question “Is the United States Bankrupt?” in a paper published in the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, July/August 2006.

“[W]e have a country at the end of its resources. It’s exhausted, stripped bear (sic), destitute, bereft, wanting in property, and wrecked (at least in terms of its consumption and borrowing capacity) in consequence of failure to pay its creditors,” Kotlikoff writes, paraphrasing the Oxford English Dictionary. “In short, the country is bankrupt and is forced to reorganize its operations by paying its creditors (the oldsters) less than they were promised.”

Mike Adams predicts that the United States will play the Ace up the sleeve. “It’s the Ace that all governments eventually play on their way to bankruptcy and collapse”: hyperinflation (NewsTarget.com 7/17/06).

Massive tax increases are likely to trigger major supply-side responses of the type that have not yet arisen in this country, Kotlikoff notes. For example, Uruguay, with very high net tax rates, has lost more than 500,000 young and middle-aged workers, largely from the nation’s best educated citizens, to Spain and other countries in recent years.

The longer Washington persists in denial, the worse the ultimate outcome, Walker warns.

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New York: state-controlled hospitals, possible $50,000 malpractice surcharge on doctors

The New York State health department has plans: to control the cost of hospital care, and to rescue the state’s malpractice insurance carriers.

In 2006, the “Berger Commission” (the Commission on Health Care Facilities in the 21st Century) decided that certain hospitals must close and others must merge, backing up its decrees with threats to withhold a certificate of operation.

The Berger Commission was appointed by Gov. Pataki to fix problems that began in the early 1980s, when New York tried to control costs by fixing the price of every procedure performed by every hospital in the state. Rates varied, as the state awarded higher rates to financially troubled hospitals. Hospitals and workers joined together in a powerful political alliance to lobby for increased state subsidies. As a result, New York now pays for about half of all personal health care, compared to 40 percent on average in other states, writes Steven Malanga (City Journal 12/20/07).

The Commission called for the elimination of about 20 percent of excess hospital and nursing-home capacity. Few closures have happened, as hospitals have gone to court to block them, but other hospitals have expanded to take advantage of the potential closure of others. So far, mergers have also failed to occur.

The most recent Medicaid spending data (from 2006) shows that New York continues to hike spending, even as 22 other states have lowered outlays. With 6 percent of the U.S. population, New York accounts for 15 percent of nationwide Medicaid spending on hospitals, and 19 percent of spending on home health care (ibid.).

The Commission basically appears to believe that competition between free and private entities is bad and needs to be eliminated, as by creating a system with fewer, government-controlled entities, writes Dr. Lawrence Huntoon of New York.

If successful, the formation of a new nonprofit entity from Kaleida Health and Erie County Medical Center, including the University of Buffalo and a new heart and vascular center, would control 40 percent of the regional hospital market and create the region’s largest nongovernment employer. It would likely result in a strike, as workers would no longer be public employees and are expected to resist the elimination of retiree health benefits for new hires. Such benefits are considered an unsustainable burden.

The “arranged marriage between competitors” is stalled, partly for want of $250 million from a state facing a $4.3 billion budget deficit (Henry L. Davis, Buffalo News 12/5/07 and 12/29/07).

Gov. Eliot Spitzer plans to help solve the problem by awarding $106 million this year for advancing adoption of electronic health records (EHRs), which are the “key to [his] healthcare agenda” (Joseph Conn, www.modernhealthcare.com 1/11/08)

Dr. Huntoon notes that merged and consolidated hospitals would need to convert to a single EHR system in order to function. As the Berger Commission can set whatever conditions it likes for hospitals’ continued operation, a state-mandated EHR may not be far in the future.

The stated rationale for EHRs is to improve quality and efficiency while reducing costs and errors. As Spitzer states, “our best tool [for making care affordable] is to change reimbursement rates….[W]e must start paying for the right care in the right setting at the right price” (Conn, ibid.).

Even as physicians’ revenues plummet, they face a 14 percent increase in professional liability insurance premiums. And to offset the debt that has been incurred by insurance carriers, state insurance superintendent Eric Dinallo may impose, over several years, a cumulative $50,000 surcharge on every physician, and/or a $230,000 surcharge on every physician in the state-regulated high-risk Medical Malpractice Insurance Plan.

“The deficit has to go somewhere eventually, unless we turn lead into gold or print money,” Dinallo said (E.B. Solomont, New York Sun 12/26/07). The fee might be “required by law to guarantee the solvency of the state’s medical malpractice insurers” (New York Sun 12/27/07).

A Brooklyn brain surgeon now pays $267,000 a year in professional liability insurance premiums, and a Queens obstetrician, $180,490.

Dr. Huntoon predicts that such a surcharge would drive many physicians out of business, lowering expenditures by making fewer physicians available to treat patients. The rate increase alone has caused a number of practices to close. In July, 215 New York obstetrician/gynecologists stopped delivering babies. New York has about 2,000 practicing obstetricians (ibid.).

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Top penalty for not buying insurance to quadruple; federal mandates proposed

The penalties for not buying insurance in Massachusetts have been set too low to “encourage” compliance, stated Jonathan Gruber, a director of the Commonwealth Health Insurance Connector.

The proposed 2008 top penalty of $912 per year is a four-fold jump from the $219 penalty people will face when filing their 2007 tax returns.

The secretary of administration and finance is trying to figure out how to “strike a balance in setting penalties that would withstand challenges to their legality and fairness,” writes Alice Dembner (Boston Globe 1/11/08).

Imposing the letter of the law would create an unwieldy schedule of 27 different penalties depending on an individual’s age, income, and place of residence.

Gruber said the proposed penalty would be less than 40 percent of the cost of insurance for younger people, and 20 percent of the cost for older people. A 50 percent penalty, some suggested, would unfairly penalize older people whose insurance premiums are twice as high as those of younger people.

A federal mandate for health insurance is advocated by presidential candidates Hillary Clinton, John Edwards, and Christopher Dodd. They would require comprehensive “insurance” that pays for routine and preventive care.

The proposed “shared responsibility” would force young people to subsidize the health tab for middle-aged and older persons, on top of their payroll tax, writes Betsy McCaughey, former lieutenant governor of New York. (Wall St J 1/4/08).

“This is contrary to a fundamental American principle. This nation has always believed in making life better for its children, not in exploiting them.”

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Record for data loss set in 2007

In 2007, more than 79 million records were compromised in the United States, a fourfold increase from 2006. Many contained Social Security and/or credit card numbers.

While government and private entities are spending more and more on firewalls, encryption, and other security measures, the fixes are often too little and too late, with hackers a step or two ahead.

With wireless data transmission more common, hackers are increasingly expected to target a major vulnerability, writes Mark Jewell for the Associated Press. Eavesdroppers are rapidly learning to bypass security safeguards (Ariz Daily Star 12/31/07).

Breaches reported by the Identity Theft Resource Center represent only a portion of those that occur.

Some are from human error, such as employees losing laptops, as opposed to hacking.

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New Jersey law makes HIV testing routine in prenatal care

By a measure signed into law by Acting Governor Richard Codey, pregnant women will be routinely tested for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). It also requires testing of newborns whose mothers with positive or unknown HIV status. Although women will be allowed to opt out of the testing, the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) and some feminist groups contend that the law deprives women of the right to make their own medical decisions.Arkansas, Michigan, Tennessee, and Texas require clinicians to test mothers for HIV, unless she asks not to be tested, while Connecticut, Illinois, and New York test all newborns, according to the Kaiser Family Foundation.

New Jersey has 17,600 AIDS cases. Women represent 32.4% of the cases, the third highest rate in the nation. The national average is 23.4%. According to the state health department, there were seven New Jersey infants born with HIV in 2005.

“We can significantly reduce the number of infections to newborns and help break down the stigma associated with the disease,” Codey stated.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has recommended voluntary HIV testing for all pregnant women. It states that medical intervention during pregnancy can cut mother-to-child transmission from 25% to 2% (Tom Hester, Jr., Associated Press 12/26/07).

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